АннотацияFood security, namely, the stability in availability of food for the population is important for the wellbeing and health of all mankind. In the modern world the destabilization of food the basic reasons of which are population growth, poverty, lack of investments into the agricultural industry, climate and weather, wars and resettlement, etc., is noted. The existing forecasts of the dynamics of population growth till 2050 are limited to 8-11 billion. The most part of this growth will accrue to the developing countries of Africa and Asia while the population of the developed countries, on average, will remain unchanged (except the United States of America due to international migration). The geographical distribution of undernourished people looks similarly, less than 5% of the population accrue to the developed countries, more than 12% - to the developing ones, on average in the world - more than 10%, with the prediction of further decrease. In spite of the fact that the percentage of mankind of the general biomass of our planet is insignificant, its activity is comprehended and anthropogenous as it became one of the most important forces changing processes in the biosphere. The interrelation of population growth and the necessary dynamics of food using the example of the protein, carbohydrate and fatty components in the world and in the former Soviet Union is considered in the work. The average forecast of population is used for the analysis. In case of the realization of the corresponding biotechnologies, the opportunity, if not of providing food security, then that of reduction of the number of undernourished people in the world, of food and energy resource conservation and of negative effect on the environment is quite achievable.
Ключевые словаFood security, growth of the number of mankind, hunger, Customs Union, Eurasian Economic Community
The mankind, in a varying degree, has faced hunger from the moment of its emergence. It is common practice to designate the decrease in agricultural production, industrialization and urbanization, armed and ethnic conflicts, the deterioration in the ecological situation as the reasons of hunger, however the uncontrollable population growth in the developing countries is considered to be the main one [1–2]. The global food deficiency is, as a rule, during world wars, natural cataclysms, epidemics, but it was until the 20th century when attempts to provide food security were made [3–6]. In 1945 the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) the main objective of which consisted in the assistance to agriculture for the reduction of the problem of hunger and poverty was created on the basis of the United Nations. In 1962 the World Food Programme of the UN was organized to confront world hunger. Ten thousand of people who annually help on average about 100 million undernourished people in 75 countries of the world (www.ru.wfp.org) work in the organization. In 1996 the member states of the UN adopted the Millennium Declaration (MPG) to improve the welfare of mankind by elimination of hunger, poverty and diseases (http://www.un.org/millenniumgoals) which resulted in the decrease in hunger by half during 1990–2015. In 2009 FAO organized the world summit on food security. Collateral events: the expert forum "How to Feed the World in 2050", the Committee on World Food Security and the World Food Day on which the declaration (WPS) with the statement for the decrease in hunger by half by 2015 (ru.wikipedia.org) was adopted. According to FAO (Fig. 1–3), (http://www.fao.org/hunger) the number of undernourished people in the world in 2015 was 793 million people (malnutrition and hunger, directly or indirectly, are the reasons of more than half of child deaths [7–10], the main reasons for death and invalidization of the person, owing to the reduction of body's immunity and the decrease in its immunodefences because of lack of nutrients [11–15]). In June, 2015 the head of FAO called for the global movement for full eradication of hunger, defining poverty as the reason for hunger. The last program of the UN “Zero Hunger” up to 2030 is based on a thesis about the possibility of eradication of the problem of hunger only after eliminating the interrelated reasons of poverty and, actually, hunger.
Figure 1 Distribution of the number of hungry people in the developing regions: the real and expected result (Data for 2014–2016 are preliminary estimates, MPG is the Millennium Development Goals, WPS is the the World Food Summit).
Figure 2 Distribution of the number and percentage of undernourished people across the regions by 1990–1992 and 2014–2016. (The value of segments is proportional to the total number of undernourished people for every period. All the indicators are rounded. The data for 2014–2016 are preliminary estimates).
The actions and programs which performed by the UN act as the world platforms of discussion and development of the complex strategy of fight against hunger on the basis of scientific, ecological, technological, social and economic and political aspects [16–20].
The greatest intensity of addition of the population of the globe was in the 20th century, it is explained, first of all, by a significant industrial progress. According to different forecasts the population growth will continue [21–23], at least, to the middle of the 21st century and will have been from 8 to 11 billion people by 2050 (Fig. 4). For this reason, there is a need of providing all people with the available, good nutrition rich with nutrients [3, 6, 24–28]. The purpose of the overview is the analysis of opportunities of providing global food security and decrease in the number of undernourished people taking into account the population growth tendencies, including that of the developing countries (Belarus, Kazakhstan, Russia) of the Customs Union and the Euroasian Economic Community.
РЕЗУЛЬТАТЫ И ИХ ОБСУЖДЕНИЕ
The analysis and projection of population allow to regulate and, in case of need, to introduce amendments in the scenarios of distribution of the existing and the renewal of the missing resources. A long-term forecast allowing to distribute the efforts of mankind in the present circumstances of the civilization and distribution of natural resources is necessary for the the solution of the similar tasks.
The first attempt to estimate the population growth and the possibility of providing all people with food was made by the English economist Thomas Malthus [29, 30]. He considered that population increases exponentially if it is not restrained by any reasons, and it does not foretell anything good for the planet, a food and ecological crisis is ahead as the quantity of food resources grows only at an arithmetic rate.
There existed for a long time an opinion that the growth of the world population is subject to the hyperbolic law, however, the analysis of empirical data (past and the present) by modern science showed that the unrestrained growth is not possible under the conditions of the existing restrictions. And there was a delay of birth rate in the second half of the last century. The English biologist Julian Huxley gave the most exact forecast (1964) - the population of the planet will have reached 6 billion people by 2000, according to the UN, this date was October 12, 1999 [31, 32]. According to the UN, the increase in population is 74 million people now. The largest growth of the population occurs and will occur in the underdeveloped countries while the population of the developed countries will remain within the present limits. The USA can make an exception because of migration flows. According to FAO, it is supposed that the population of the planet will have exceeded 9 billion people by 2050.
Some of the most widely used forecasting models of population up to 2100 which, to some accuracy, have a single quality characteristic of dynamics are known, the difference is in quantitative values (Fig. 4).
Figure 4 Dynamics of growth of the world population with the results of the forecast till 2100 (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Projections_of_population_growth): 1 – the calculated data (US Census Bureau historical estimates); 2 – the high case scenario of the UN; 3 – the medium case scenario of the UN; 4 – the low case scenario of the UN; 5 – the actual data.
These data include the forecasts of the UN, International Institute for Applied System Analysis (IIASA), the World Bank and the Russian science professor Sergey Petrovich Kapitsa who paid considerable attention to the study of problematics of population of mankind (Table 1).
The forecast of the UN is the total scenario of birth rate and mortality by nine regions of the world: the population of Earth will have reached the value of 11.600 billion by 2150 and further will be stabilized.
The forecasts of IIASA are based on the split of the world into six regions and the use of ten various scenarios of development, they will be in effect until 2100.
The World Bank is an international financial organization created for the purpose of providing the organization of financial and technical assistance to the developing countries, one of its activities is the strategic tasks of development of humanity and certain regions.
The mathematical model of Kapitsa S.P. (MK) defines the asymptotic transition to the limit of 12 billion in 2100, 11 billion are expected by 2050. Kapitsa's work showed that the growth of population of the Earth does not depend on additional variables during considerable time intervals, but only on the temporary variable and the population size. According to calculations, the stabilization of the world population is expected to be stabilized at the level of 14 billion persons by 2135 .
Fig. 4 provides the change of population of the Earth, taking into account the data of the UN (medium variant) and the existing forecasts. This situation will not go unnoticed in terms of providing the quality of life. There is already a certain territorial and food deficiency. Eleven children die of hunger every minute in the world. According to FAO, more than one billion people constantly suffer from hunger in the world. Most part of them lives in the Asian-Pacific Region and in Africa.
Fig. 5 provides the information about the percentage of undernourished people (databank.worldbank.org). Certain results of fight against hunger are obviously achieved. By 2012 the growth of the world population had been about 30% of the quantity in 1991 while the decrease in the number of undernourished people had been 25% against the background of the growth of total of the population. Considering the average prediction of population growth, the preservation of the existing tendencies of decrease in the number of undernourished people will have inherently provided the growth of their number by 2025. Neither programs of the UN nor the existing development of technologies including that in agriculture are effective to control this trend.
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